Monday, March 18, 2024

Putin’s Interventions have Made Russian Mortality Data Extremely Unreliable, Experts Say

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Mar. 15 – Vladimir Putin talks far more often about boosting the Russian birthrate that cutting mortality rates; but when he does focus on the latter, he does so in ways that have led to a sharp deterioration in the quality and reliability of the data that his government uses to make policy and offers to the world as evidence of its successes, Russian experts say.

            Two journalists, Mayya Guseva and Aby Shukyurov of the To Be Precise portal, have examined this situation and explain why the World Health Organization classifies almost ten percent of the mortality figures Rosstat releases as being unreliable “trash” numbers (tochno.st/materials/v-moskve-liudi-casto-umiraiut-ot-neutocnennogo-padeniia-v-cecne-anomalnaia-smertnost-ot-starosti-a-voronezskaia-oblast-lider-po-procim-nescastnym-slucaiam-eto-musornye-kody-i-na-nix-prixoditsia-okolo-10-smertei-v-rossii).

            In 2012, Putin ordered the country’s healthcare system to reduce deaths from circulatory problems, tuberculosis and cancer. Since then, Rosstat has reported progress in each case; but its reporting is compromised by the fact that deaths from “’indeterminate’” causes have increased almost exactly as much as those from these three causes have reportedly fallen.

            Russian researchers point out that their country has the highest share of that cause of death among all European countries, something that calls into question the Kremlin’s repeated claims that it has made more progress than in fact it has in dealing with the three causes of death Putin ordered to be reduced (vedomosti.ru/economics/articles/2018/03/12/753159-rossiyane-chasche-umirat).

            There are similar problems with deaths from HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis being reported as the result of other causes. Indeed, one Moscow expert says Russian TB deaths are likely being reported as far lower than they in fact are and need to be adjusted, something that makes Moscow claims on these diseases suspect as well (med-alphabet.com/jour/article/view/580/580).

            Other kinds of death being hidden by the assignment of “’undefined’” causes include murders, suicides, and accidents. All of them are likely responsible for far more deaths than the Putin regime is acknowledging (demreview.hse.ru/article/view/1790/2513 and  researchgate.net/publication/332320342_Smertnost_ot_povrezdenij_s_neopredelennymi_namereniami_kak_pokazatel_kacestva_statistiki_smertnosti_ot_vnesnih_pricin).

            Individual doctors and hospitals are making these diagnoses on the basis of what their bosses want to hear rather than Moscow imposing a single standard on all of them, the two journalists say. Otherwise, there would not be the variance in causes of death among the federal subjects.

            And they conclude their data-packed discussion with the following observation by one Moscow specialist on medical statistics which suggests just how bad the situation has become. Before 1999, Rosstat attempted to maintain control by issuing specific instructions on how to code this or that death. But in that year, the same in which Putin rose to power, things changed.

            “Since 1999,” Valery Yumaguzin says, “Rosstat no longer has any influence on the quality of these statistics: it only collects and publishes data” that are produced by others who act on the basis of what they understand the Kremlin wants rather than on the basis of specific protocols.

At Local Level, Environmental Activism Transforming ‘Residents of Russia into Citizens,’ Expert Says

 Paul Goble

            Staunton, Mar. 14 –In the last several years, Moscow has shut down most all-Russian environmental organizations and gutted the environmental laws that had given some promise that the government was committed to cleaning up the environment and fighting climate change and all the problems related to that.

            These defeats – and they have been widely chronicled – are serious, Insider journalist Marina Dulnyeva says Russians concerned with the defense of the environment have told her. But she suggests that all is not lost and the Russians are still winning some small victories on this front (ru/obshestvo/267019).

            And these victories, even when they are limited and often reversed, Vitaly Servetnik, coordinator of the Ecology Crisis Group, says, highlight two important developments. On the one hand, Russians have not bought the Kremlin’s message that concern for the environment is an unwelcome import from the West. Ever more believe it is a concern of Russians as well.

            And on the other, the ecological activist continues, despite all the setbacks, “environmental problems,” many exacerbated by the Kremlin’s own actions since the start of the expanded war in Ukraine have had the effect of “transforming residents of the country into citizens,” a development that strikes at the heart of Kremlin efforts to prevent that.

            This has been happening, Servetnik continues, despite Moscow’s closure of all-Russian environmental movements and its elimination of many environmental protection measures and controls that the Russian government had introduced in earlier decades. But it has been below the radar screen of Moscow writers who have focused on the center alone.

            He says that his group has collected data on 50 “ecological victories” in 2022 alone (help-eco.info/50victories2022/) and additional ones in the months since. Few are earthshaking by themselves and some have already been reversed. But they are proving to be the seedbeds of citizenship, even if they are typically ignored.

To Meet Moscow Goals, Federal Subjects have been Forced to Raise Payments for Men who Sign Up for Russian Military by 50 Percent over Last Year, ‘Important Stories’ Reports

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Mar. 14 – To meet Moscow-assigned quotas, Russia’s federal subjects have been forced to increase payments to those who sign up by 50 percent over the last year, an indication that interest in joining the military is declining and a policy change that means regions will be forced to cut spending further on social needs, the Important Stories portal reports.

            Both last year and this, the central government has offered payments of 195,000 rubles (2000 US dollars) to those who sign up as professional soldiers, but Moscow has encouraged regions with higher quotas to offer more so as to attract more men to the colors, the investigative journalists found (istories.media/news/2024/03/14/chtobi-privlech-novikh-kontraktnikov-regioni-uvelichili-yedinovremennuyu-viplatu-za-podpisanie-kontrakta-v-srednem-za-god-ona-virosla-v-15-raza/).

            Most federal subjects have, but ten have not, including the city of Moscow where the Kremlin is not seeking to recruit as many professional soldiers. But in the rest, the size of payments has jumped by 50 percent or even more over the last year, the Important Stories portal says.

            In Moscow oblast, these regional payments have now reached the level of 805,000 rubles (81,000 US dollars. Other leaders include Astrakhan and Nizhny Novgorod oblasts where the bonuses are now 500,000 rubles (5,000 US dollars), the portal says. A year ago, none of the federal subjects offered more than 300,000 rubles (3,000 US dollars).

            Regional governments have undoubtedly concluded, under Moscow’s prodding, that they need to offer more if they are to meet the center’s requirements. But boosting spending in this way will leave them will even less money to spend on other more popular social programs, although it will allow Moscow yet another means of hiding the true cost of its war in Ukraine.

Russia is an Amazing Country, Always Ready for a Nuclear War but Never for Winter or Natural Disasters, Some Russians Say

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Mar. 15 – Following Vladimir Putin’s statement that Russia is prepared for a nuclear war, some Russians are saying that their country is truly amazing:  it is apparently always ready for a nuclear war but has never been ready for winter, natural disasters or even potholes in in its streets and roads.

            That is just one of the anecdotes Russians are telling each other that have been collected by Moscow journalist Tatyana Pushkaryova (publizist.ru/blogs/107374/48025/-). Among the best of the rest are the following:

·       Russians truly have some unexpected freedoms. The constitution specifies that they have the freedom to remain silent and not shout “glory to the beloved leader” as North Koreans must.

·       Kremlin officials want the Russian constitution to be put in electronic form so that they can change it quickly as needed.

·       Sanctions have truly helped us – including to restore ration coupons.

·       Shaman Gabyshev is going to be re-examined by Russian psychiatrists, sad news for him and for the country as there are no other saviors on the horizon.

·       Russians are being told that they shouldn’t fear that Russian planes and helicopters will fall out of the sky because very soon all of them already will have done so.

·       Russians who say you should drink more and those who say you should drink less agree on one thing: you do need to drink!

·       One Russian says he’ll vote for someone who has violated the constitution by running for a fifth term, started a war, and failed to fulfill a single promise, as long as he agrees to lie down in his own grave.

Sunday, March 17, 2024

Kremlin Increasingly Worried Criminal Groups Threaten Its Power, Anti Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Mar. 14 – Roman Anti, a pseudonymous Moscow blogger, says that “something very new is taking shape” in Russia, “repulsive for many,” but nonetheless “real” hostility to Putin among criminals and other marginalized groups, a development that the Kremlin is increasingly worried threatens its power.

            This anger is not so much ideological as a reflection of the view among such groups at the bottom of Russian society that Putin is “scum” and should be sent packing, Anti continues; but because the Kremlin has gelded almost everyone else, such people are frightening and the regime is moving against them (kasparov.ru/material.php?id=65F2992B80B3B).

            That is why the Kremlin has banned the AUE and has been conducting operations against shadow communities within the prison system, Anti continues. It sees them as a threat both because they are “alternative verticals” and because they are prepared to use violence in the pursuit of their aims.

            Other social strata, he continues, are already “tightly controlled by the powers that be administratively, economically and ideologically.” Such people “aren’t ready for an uprising, to put it mildly.” As a result, the regime fears, “the first push will come from counter-state groups” like criminals. Hence the regime’s “pro-active” strikes.

            “Even in the Third Reich,” Anti points out, “the Gestapo had problems with criminal groups,” some of whom grew into “an anti-Nazi underground such as Hans Steinbruck’s Ehrenfeld Group.” And when repression of Solidarity began in Poland in the early 1980s, some of its activists began to speak with criminal elements there.

            According to Anti, “over the last decade, politically motivated arson, attacks on loyalists, clashes with the police and the National Guard have arisen more than a few times out of this environment. And now, “’Zek versus Z’ is the image of Russian politics,” yet another confirmation that “the social weakening of the regime has begun from the very bottom.”

 

Aga Khan Promoting Western Ideas Not Only in Tajikistan but throughout Central Asia, Russian Experts Say

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Mar. 14 – Many in both Moscow and the West have focused on the influence of the Aga Khan on the Ismaili community in Tajikistan’s Gorno-Badakhshan, viewing it as a source of increasing instability there (windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2023/06/fearful-of-secession-in-gorno.html and windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2022/01/new-chinese-base-in-tajikistan-will.html).

            But now, two Russian commentators, Yuliya Filaretova and Atiye Besem, argue that the Aga Khan’s influence in Central Asia extends far beyond Tajikistan and represents a threat to Moscow’s interests because he supposedly works hand in glove with Western NGOs (imemo.ru/files/File/magazines/rossia_i_novay/2023_04/20-Filaretova.pdf as discussed at ia-centr.ru/experts/ia-centr-ru/deyatelnost-fonda-aga-khana-v-tsentralnoy-azii/).

            And he is far more effective than many Western NGOs, the two suggest, because his Aga Khan Development Network (AKDN) presents itself as part of the Islamic world and thus is accepted by many in the region who are far more prepared to reject ideas that they can see are first and foremost Western imports.

            The article by Filaretova and Besem is important not only because it provides a detailed map of where the AKDN is most active across Central Asia but also because it suggests that the Kremlin almost certainly will pressure governments there to restrict the activities of the AKDN because of what Moscow believes is its anti-Russian nature.

Ever More Russians Again Becoming Internal Emigres, Turning Away Even from Social Media, Mikhaylichenko Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Mar 14. – As repression increases and the opportunities for emigration and “living there but working here” decline, Dmitry Mikhaylichenko says, ever more Russians are adopting the time-tested approach of internal emigration in which they focus on their families and avoid all forms of social activity, including even participation in social media.

            The political scientist who heads Ufa’s Institute of Regional Expertise argues this turning inward, something Russians have often practiced in the past, leads to underestimation of the degree of popular unhappiness with the regime (t.me/kremlebezBashennik/37091 reposted at newizv.ru/news/2024-03-12/dmitriy-mihaylichenko-strana-vse-glubzhe-pogruzhaetsya-vo-vnutrennyuyu-emigratsiyu-428018).

            “Our grandparents and great-grandparents,” Mikhaylichenko says, “would not have written posts on social networks even if they had existed;” and soon a similar pattern may obtain in Putin’s Russia. Again, Russians who disagree with the regime will talk among their family circles and keep diaries but not take any public action even online.

            To the extent the Ufa scholar is correct, it will become ever more difficult either for the Kremlin or for its opponents within Russia or abroad to know just what the Russian people are thinking, a development that will make it ever more likely that the Kremlin will take decisions that most Russians don’t approve of and have to use ever more repression to maintain itself.

            But this trend will also mean that opponents of the regime will be ever less sure of how widespread their feelings are and will lead Russians at home and analysts and officials abroad equally unsure of just how many supporters and how many opponents the leaders of Russia have in their own country.