Window on Eurasia: Sochi Countdown -- 38 Weeks to the Olympiad in the North Caucasus

Note:  This is my 14th special Window on Eurasia about the meaning and impact of the planned Olympiad on the nations in the surrounding region.  These WOEs, which will appear each Friday over the coming year, will not aim at being comprehensive but rather will consist of a series bullet points about such developments.  I would like to invite anyone with special knowledge or information about this subject to send me references to the materials involved.  My email address is paul.goble@gmail.com  Allow me to express my thanks to all those who already have. Paul Goble

Duma Leaders Praise Olympic Construction, Ignore Sochi’s Problems, Residents Say. Leaders of the United Russia, Communist and LDPR parties visited Sochi and said, among other things, that the Olympic building program was on schedule and that they had bene told that “no extra money will be needed; maybe there will even be savings” (vesti.ru/doc.html?id=1084778 and vestnikkavkaza.net/news/economy/40351.html).  But local residents complained that the Moscow politicians ignored them altogether, reaffirming their belief that “Sochi doesn’t have any relation to the future Olympiad” (blogsochi.ru/content/lidery-dumskikh-fraktsii-poluchiv-ukazaniya-putina-priznali-khod-podgotovki-k-olimpiade-otli and blogsochi.ru/content/gospodin-prezident-pozhaluista-pozhaleite-sochintsev).

International Petition Drive Against Killing Homeless Animals in Sochi.  A group of Europeans has organized an online petition to protest the decision of the Sochi authorities to kill rather than sterilize homeless animals in that city prior to the competition. The authors of the petition note that the city is even expecting to make a profit of 42,500 euros on the killings (thepetitionsite.com/972/019/713/2000-street-dogs-and-cats-will-be-killed-for-the-olympic-games-in-sochi-in-2014/).    

NBC Reports Strong Ad Sales But Also High Costs for Sochi Coverage. The Wall Street Journal reports that Comcast’s NBCUniversal division is now “projecting advertising sale of more than $800 million” for the Sochi games but that higher than normal costs may eat into profits (stream.wsj.com/story/latest-headlines/SS-2-63399/SS-2-233377/).

North Caucasus Resorts Gets Another Director -- and a Deputy Related to Khloponin.  Sergey Verehchagin has been named director of the troubled North Caucasus Resorts project and Nikita Shashkin, a close relative of North Caucasus FD Plenipotentiary Aleksandr Khloponin, as his deputy (bigcaucasus.com/events/actual/17-05-2013/83310-ksk_vereshagin-0/).

More and More Construction Projects in Sochi Start and Then Stop without Explanation. Sochi residents are upset that the contractors preparing for the Olympics often start a construction project, dig up the grounds, and then stop, often for weeks or months, without any explanation but with many problems for those living nearby (blogsochi.ru/content/voistinu-ne-vedaem-chto-tvorim).

Sochi Residents Organize Against Their ‘So-Called’ Government. The citizens of Sochi are organizing to oppose the often inexplicable behavior of their “so-called” government which is supposed “to serve the people and not just be a ruler” but which has lost its bearing and is ignoring the will of the population (http://blogsochi.ru/content/kruglyi-stol). To that end, some of the citizens are organizing into teams which check construction projects and report violations of the law to news outlets and website (blogsochi.ru/content/%C2%ABsochivodokanal%C2%BB-i-volontery-proveli-sovmestnyi-reid).

Moscow Ramps Up Anti-Circassian Campaign in the Media. Denies Any Genocide Took Place in 1864. With each passing week, Russian media outlets are pushing ever more anti-Circassian articles with some of them explicitly stating that there is no truth to Circassian claims that the Russian government committed a genocide against them by killing or expelling hundreds of thousands of them to the Ottoman Empire (hekupsa.com/cherkesiya/anticherkesizm/828-segodnya-ru-mif-o-genotside-cherkesov and freecircassia.ucoz.com/news/impercy_pytajutsja_opravdat_genocid_cherkesskogo_naroda/2013-05-15-283). Sochi Rights Activist Dies, Officials Refuse to Allow His Burial in Local Cemetery. Yury Molchanov, a human rights activist who had exposed corruption and official malfeasance in Sochi and who had been the target of threats from supporters of the regime, died of a brain hemmorage. Sochi officials then refused to allow his wife to bury him in a local cemetery (http://www.kavkaz-uzel.ru/articles/224086/#.UZEKlm2qzN4.twitter). 70,000 Gastarbeiters Now in Sochi, Given Housing Ahead of Local People.  Southern FD plenipotentiary Vladimir Ustinov says there are now 70,000 gastarbeiters working at construction projects in Sochi, and local officials says that they have been given housing ahead of local people who have been on waiting lists (blogsochi.ru/content/vladimir-ustinov-na-olimpiiskikh-obektakh-v-sochi-rabotaet-bolee-70-tys-inostrantsev  and blogsochi.ru/content/zhile-dlya-ocherednikov-v-spalnom-raione-otdali-gastarbaiteram). Olympic Facilities Encroach on Cemeteries. Many people in Sochi are disturbed by the fact that some Olympic venues and support facilities are encroaching on the territory of local cemeteries and making it impossible to honor the dead buried there (blogsochi.ru/content/olimpiada-v-sochi-proidet-na-kladbishche).

Sochi City Officials Spend a Million US Dollars to Boost Their Image.  Even though they have failed to fulfill many of their basic obligations, regularly feature as defendents in criminal trials and are widely disliked by the population, Sochi city officials have set aside 32,628,000 rubles for a public relations campaign on their own behalf (http://blogsochi.ru/content/kto-platit-tot-i-muzyku-zakazyvaet%E2%80%A6).

International Circassian Association Head Backs Appeal to Putin.  Kh. Sokhrokov, the president of the ICA, has announced his support of an appeal to Russian President Vladimir Putin calling on him to acknowledge the 1864 genocide and to support the return to their homeland of the Circassians now in Syria (hekupsa.com/cherkesiya/golos-cherkesii/803-sokhrokov-podderzhal-obrashchenie-cherkesskikh-organizatsij-k-prezidentu-rf).

Circassians in US to Demonstrate on 149^th Anniversary of Circassian Genocide.  Circassians living in the United States have announced plans to hold a demonstration in New York calling for the repatriation of the Circassians living in Syria, a boycott of the Sochi Olympiad, recognition of the Circassian genocide by the international community, and the  restoration of a united Circassiaan republic (www.facebook.com/events/450215995068193/).

Georgian PM Says He Doesn’t Rule Out Going to Sochi.  Georgian Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishivili says that he does not know whether he will go to the Sochi games, notes that he hasn’t received “an official invitation,” but does “not rule out” that he might attend (www.business-standard.com/article/news-ians/georgian-pm-mulls-attending-sochi-olympics-113051400718_1.html).

Putin Meets British, Israeli Prime Ministers in Sochi.  As part of his campaign to boost the Sochi Olympiad, Russian President Vladimir Putin received separately the prie ministers of Israel and Great Britain. Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu did not discuss the games, but Britain’s David Cameron said that London will provide limited security cooperation with Moscow during the competititon (www.insidethegames.biz/olympics/winter-olympics/2014/1014164-sochi-2014-sparks-renewal-of-british-and-russian-security-cooperation, www.stoletie.ru/na_pervuiu_polosu/v_sochi_govorili_o_sirii_575.htm and www.washingtonpost.com/sports/olympics/british-pm-david-cameron-promises-limited-security-cooperation-with-russia-for-sochi-olympics/2013/05/10/ad948f02-b993-11e2-b568-6917f6ac6d9d_story.html).

US Ambassador to Moscow Says He Wants to Take His Family to Sochi.  In a tweet, Michael McFaul, the US ambassador to Moscow, says that he wants to take his family on vacatin to Sochi this summer (vz.ru/news/2013/5/14/632489.html).

Tour Packages for Sochi Games to Cost 10,000 US Dollars.  Russian tour firms have announced that tour packages for the Sochi games for a four day visit will cost 300,000 rubles or about 10,000 US dollars, far beyond the ability of most Russians or others to pay (www.bfm.ru/news/216152).

Putin Drops Visa Requirement for Competitors at Sochi, Other Games.  Russian President Vladimir Putin has suspended the visa requirement for all athletes who want to take part in the Sochi games or other athletic competitions in the Russian Federation (washingtonpost.com/sports/russia-scraps-visas-for-foreign-athletes-taking-part-in-sochi-olympics-other-sporting-events/2013/05/13/11256a5e-bbf2-11e2-b537-b47f0325f7c_story.html).

Problems in Kazan Spark Rumors Universiade Will Be Moved to Another City. Several websites are reporting that officials, upset by the fact that many venues are not yet ready, may move the Kazan Universiade to another city, rumors that other officials are denying (regnum.ru/news/sport/1657837.html and newsland.com/news/detail/id/1176421/).

Adler Turns from Green to Gray Because of Dust but No Photographs are Allowed.  The city of Adler, where most of the Sochi venues are, used to be known for its green trees, but dust from Olympic construction has turned the city gray. Few know that, a Russian news weekly reports, because officials are prohibiting photographs of either the sites or the environmental pollution (vlg.aif.ru/sport/article/34722).

A Site Officials Listed as Completed Was Never Built. Sochi activists have discovered that one site Moscow officials routinely list as work completed, a railway station, was never built but remains open ground (blogsochi.ru/content/stantsiyu-perelivaniya-krovi-vveli-v-ekspluatatsiyu-postroit-zabyli).

Circassian Activist in Tbilisi Calls on Georgia to Boycott Sochi Games.  Andro Gabisonia, the head of the Circassian Congress and Circassian Cultural Center in Tbilis, says that Georgia should boycott the Sochi games to protest Russia’s continuing violation of its territorial integrity (kavkaz-uzel.ru/articles/223992/).

Russian Scholar Says Sochi Could Promote Decentralization and Pluralism But that Putin is Opposed. In an article in “Novoye literaturnoye obozreniye,” Andrey Makarychev, who teaches at the Free University of Berlin, says that the Sochi Games could have had the effect of promoting a more pluralistic and decentralized Russia but that President Vladimir Putin has sought to use them to move in the opposite direction (http://www.nlobooks.ru/node/3426).

Sochi Part of Moscow’s Myth-Making Process, Swedish Scholars Say.  In an article in the latest issue of “Novoye literaturnoye obozreniye,” Bo Petersson and Emil Perrson of the University of Malmo say that Sochi has become part of the myth about the revival of Russia that President Vladimir Putin has worked so hard to promote (nlobooks.ru/node/3428).

Sochi Residents May Have Benefited Financially from Games but are Angry Because Their Voices Have Been Ignored, Swiss Scholar Says. Martin Mueller, a geographer at St. Gallen University, says that despite investments exceeding 100,000 euros per capita in Sochi, residents of that city are outraged because they have been ignored. He adds that their anger will continue long after the competition ends (nlobooks.ru/node/3429).

Despite Moscow’s Promises, Sochi Will Not Be Barrier Free for Invalids. Despite Moscow’s promises and plans to hold a para-Olympics there and despite IOC requirements, the Russian government has not made the Sochi venues accessible for those with physical handicaps. Indeed, in many cases, the facilities are not easily accessible even for those without such limitations (blogsochi.ru/content/vnimanie-podem, blogsochi.ru/content/my-dlya-vas-i-ne-na-takoe-sposobny, blogsochi.ru/content/barernaya-sreda

 and blogsochi.ru/content/beregis-peshekhod-opasnyi-peshekhodnyi-perekhod).

Untreated Human Waste Continues to Flow into Sochi Streets and Trash Continues to Build Up Around the City. Despite complaints, officials have not stopped the flow of untreated human wastes into some Sochi streets, local residents say (blogsochi.ru/content/fekalnye-stoki-po-ulitse-plastunskoi). Moreover, and again despite complaints and official promises, mountains of trash continue to build up around Sochi (http://blogsochi.ru/content/kavkazskaya-politika-olimpiiskaya-voina-za-musor).

Officials Decide to Demolish Leaning Tower of Sochi. A new building that has tilted in a few months even more than its famous counterpart in Pisa over the centuries because of subsidence and inadequate foundations will be torn down before it falls down, officials say (http://blogsochi.ru/content/v-sochi-snosyat-pizanskuyu-bashnyu).

Russian News Outlets Report ‘Sochi Countdown’ Compiler’s Judgment that Sochi Will be Putin’s Greatest Failure.  Rosbalt.ru and other Russian news agencies have reported Paul Goble’s statement to the Voice of America that “the Olympiad which Vladimir Putin planned as the symbol and greatest achievement of his presidency is more likely to become his greatest failure” not only because of the games themselves but of what they are showing Russians and the world about the nature of his regime (rosbalt.ru/main/2013/05/11/1127001.html).

‘Why are We Throwing a Party for Putin?’ Canadian Commentator Asks. Kate Heartfield of the Ottawa Citizen says that “it’s too late to cancel the Sochi Olympics. But it isn’t too late to make sure Sochi is the last incredibly stupid choice of location for a major international sports event” and one that is being used to whitewash an authoritarian political system (http://www.theprovince.com/opinion/columnists/throwing+party+Putin/8385797/story.html).

Window on Eurasia: Putin’s Regime Resembles Brezhnev’s but Russian Society isn’t Soviet Anymore, Gudkov Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, May 16 – The way in which media controlled by the Russian government have played up the recent spy case makes one feel that the country has “returned to the 1980s model of the USSR,” an Russian opposition figure says, but the briefest of reflections leads to the conclusion that the regime may have but that the population hasn’t and won’t.

            In a commentary on his blog yesterday, Gennady Gudkov says that as someone who grew up in Soviet times, he immediately caught the message of these government stories: “Hostile ‘voices’ paid for by the CIA are again conducting ideological diversions against the fortress of communism, and a traitorous ‘fifth’ column … is besmirching the bright image of our Motherland” (gudkov-gennadij.livejournal.com/126505.html).

            The financiers of the opposition remain the same – the CIA and the US State Department – with only the names of “the chief enemies of the Soviet (forgive me!) current powers” changed from Academician Sakharov to people like Boris Nemtsov who “was a supporter of Boris Yeltsin who made Vladimir Putin his successor.”

            The Russian government media now as the Soviet media did 25 years ago, the opposition figure continues, are still promoting the very same message: those who protest have suffered “a  moral collapse” and are selling Russia to its “accursed” enemies for small change.

            In order to convince the Russian audience of this, the government media make use of people like Andrannik Migranyan, “who is more well-known in the Russian Federation for his talent at a necessary movement to repeat the news that is necessary to necessary people,” again a pattern familiar to those who remember Brezhnev’s times.

            The government media now offer no discussions or debate or even nuances. They put out only “naked” propaganda, “crude lies, and open slander,” again just as the Soviet media did in the past. But whatever those in power who order this kind of thing may think, Russians and Russia now are not what they were a quarter of a century ago.

            First of all, Gudkov says, the Cold War is over; Russians have travelled and studied abroad and even own property there. They thus have the basis for comparison between what the regime says about the West and what the reality there is that their Soviet predecessors often did not.

            Second, the regime’s continued reliance on such propaganda shows that it wants to rely not on the most educated and most informed part of the population but rather on the least. That raises the question: “what kind of a country are we building, a country of fools?” Or is it just that the regime has been fooling itself.

            And third, Gudkov argues, it appears that the powers that be do not recognize something else, that their propagandistic approach is driving the country into a dead end, one in which “civil conflict will become the single means of resolving the contradictions that have been building” in the very different Russia of today.

            The top leaders clearly do not remember what happened to those like Sakharov and Solzhenitsyn whom the Soviet regime persecuted. Today, they are “the first names” of the country and there are even streets in Moscow named in their honor. And they appear not to be able to imagine that the same pattern could repeat itself.

            According to their limited understanding, “the extra-systemic (that is, real) opposition is preparing a ‘color revolution’” by promoting dissatisfaction with the regime. But a revolution is not something that is cooked up in that way, Gudkov argues. It is “a spontaneous phenomenon like thunder or a storm.”

            No one can order it up, but it can only be avoided by “wise agreements” or be prepared for, especially if the situation in a country is deteriorating as it is in Russia today. But those at the top of the Russian regime do not understand that either and remain prisoners of “the illusion that they have total control over the political situation.”

            That too recalls the final years of the Soviet Union. Then too the Politburo and its hangers’ on thought that they were in full control and would remain so. “A very sad parallel,” Gudkov concludes and then asks “perhaps it is still not too late” to avoid yet another cataclysm with all that that would entail.

Window on Eurasia: Kyrgyzstan Latest Central Asian State to Seek to Leave Russian-Language Zone

Paul Goble

            Staunton, May 16 – The Kyrgyzstan parliament has passed a law imposing fines on those who use of Russian in state institutions, thus becoming the latest Central Asian government to seek to solidify its statehood by promoting its national language at the expense of Russian, a measure, a Moscow commentator argues, that will have only negative consequences.

On the portal of the Strategic Culture Foundation yesterday, Andrey Fomin argues that the Kyrgyz have forgotten the words of their great writer Chingiz Aytmatov on the ways in which the Russian language can help his fellow Kyrgyz expand their ties with the world and to have chosen instead to follow the paths of other Central Asian states (fondsk.ru/news/2013/05/16/kirgizija-zabyla-chingiza-ajtmatova-20492.html).

What the Kyrgyz have now done, Fomin suggests, “might have looked completely natural in 1992 or even 2005,” given that “all the post-Soviet republics of Central Asia” have sought to promote their national languages in order to solidify their statehood. But given their experiences, what Bishkek has done appears somewhat strange.

Tajikistan introduced restrictions on the use of Russian in 2009-2010 even though so many of its people have become gastarbeiters in the Russian Federation and “the business sector of the republic functions primarily in Russian. As a result, the Moscow writer says,,Dushanbe backed down and restored Russian to its earlier status as “the language of inter-ethnic communication.”

Uzbekistan followed a similar trajectory. In its 1995 constitution and 2004 language law, that country made no reference to a special status for Russian. Moreover, it made what Fomin calls “a fatal mistake” by deciding to replace the Cyrillic-based alphabet with a Latin script, a move that he says threw the country back decades.

Turkmenistan did not give Russian a special status in its constitution, Fomin continues, but despite that, Ashgabat has pursued a more or less balanced approach about its use. Thus, “it did not occur to anyone there to fine Turkmen officials for ‘insufficient mastery of the state language.” Instead, it promoted Russian instruction in secondary and higher education.

And Kazakhstan, after having given Russian an official status in its 1995 Constitution, required in 2006 the use of Kazakh alone in five oblasts of the country, although that requirement has been honored more often in the breach than in reality. Now, Kazakhstan is promoting a gradual transition toward the Latin script.

“As we see,” Fomin writes, “over the last 20 years, all the states of Cntral Asia without exception have passed through linguistic ‘sovereignization,’ and all at present have recognized that this is a dead end.”  Only the Russian language, he says they recognize, makes the region “culturally and educationally” competitive.

That is what makes the Kyrgyzstan action so strange, Fomin continues. But there are two other reasons why it is so: On the one hand, it will be impossible, he says, “to construct ‘a single social-cultural space’ in the country without the Russian language” given the enormous ethnic diversity Kyrgyzstan includes.

And on the other, Russian is needed for what Fomin says all Kyrgyzstan citizens want “the construction of a new big country [in the form of the Moscow-led Customs Union] and the re-industrialization of the region.” What the Bishkek legislators have done is thus “a negative signal about the attitude of Bishkek toward integration into a common economic space.”

What Fomin does not say but what is likely to be more important is the following: Moscow’s desire to maintain the position of the Russian language in Central Asia reflects its commitment to building a new Russian-dominated political space there, and that may be precisely the reason why many Central Asians will seek to promote their national languages.