Paul
Goble
Staunton, January 5 – Three Russian
experts with whom Russkaya planeta spoke say that while declines in the standard
of living of many Russians in the coming year as a result of the economic
crisis may lead to some protests about economic issues, any such demonstrations
are unlikely to focus on high politics.
On the one hand, they suggest, what
has happened in Ukraine has given Russians a certain “vaccination” against
political action. And on the other, the “archaic” quality of the Russian state
means that Western sanctions are causing Russians to feel they are in a besieged
fortress and thus show even more support for Vladimir Putin and his regime.
The portal’s Marina Sokolovskaya and
Gulya Arifmezova spokes with Igor Bunin, the director of the Moscow Center for
Political Technologies, Olga Kryshtanovskaya, a specialist on elites at the
Institute of Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and Kirill Koktysh,
an instructor at MGIMO (rusplt.ru/society/protest-pomenyaet-anatomiyu-15095.html).
Bunin said that he expects the life
of residents in Russia’s largest cities will change significantly in the coming
year, with real incomes falling 20 to 30 percent, a decline that will leave the
lives of people there “ever more modest. But these changes will be felt
significantly less in the provinces because people there live under conditions
almost of the 1990s.”
Where protests are likely in the
immediate future are in company towns, Bunin continued. But he suggested that
such actions if they occur are unlikely to be as widespread as they were in
2011 or to take on a political coloration.
“The protest will be social,” even though some opposition figures will
try to make more out of it than that.
The only “political” fallout, the
Moscow commentator says, is that the Kremlin may remove Dmitry Medvedev as
prime minister and fire some other senior officials as a way of sending a
message that the Kremlin is in charge – and of course reinforcing the
traditional Russian view of the good tsar and the bad boyars.
Kryshtanovskaya said she agrees that
the rural areas are unlikely to experience dramatic declines given that they
did not experience the increases those in the cities have. In the latter
places, people are going to live more simply and with many fewer luxuries, she
said, suggesting that they “will live to some extent in the Soviet manner.”
She indicated that that would of
course involve some “minuses.” “No one wants to consume fewer high quality goods.”
But at the same time, “the reduction of consumption may give a little more
space for spiritual values.”
According to Russkaya planeta, “the
sociologist does not exclude that there will be new economic shocks in March
and April,” when Russian companies will have to scramble to pay their debts.
That will require the government to operate in a clever and flexible manner.
But she indicated that she was “certain
that despite the possible decline in standard of living, opposition
demonstrations under political slogans are not very probable in Russia.” What happened
in Ukraine has immunized Russians to such appeals, Kryshtanovskaya argued.
Instead, she said, any actions will limit themselves to
social and economic demands. “But this does not mean a revolution. They can
make demands and exert influence, but if they are not in the end heard, protest
actions can take place. However, the people does not want an overthrow or
seizure of power.” Instead, its members want higher pay.
And
Koktysh added that Western sanctions are only reinforcing that pattern. Western pressure, he argued, “has led to the consolidation
of Russian society,” a trend which reflects “the specific and archaic nature of
[the Russian] state,” one that relies in times of crisis on the image of “a besieged
fortress.” Thus, as conditions get
worse, Putin’s popularity could even grow.
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